This superb report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. In 2035 some states' integrated air defense systems will be able to find, fix, track, target, and engage our current air dominance aircraft. US operations in this environment may prove costly and threaten heavy aircraft losses. Worse, decisive air operations, the hallmark of US military strategy for nearly 60 years, may not be possible in hyper-defended airspace. As one commentator put it, "the US is confronted with a strategic choice: to risk loss of military access to areas vital to its national security or to explore options for preserving access."
Unlike the 1970's stealth revolution, there is no "silver bullet" technological solution to the 2035 air dominance problem. The United States is unlikely to achieve unimpeded access using radio frequency, infrared, and electro-optical cloaking technologies alone. Therefore, the United States needs to reevaluate its overall air dominance strategy to ensure it can gain initial access in this new, hyper-defended airspace to enable follow-on, high tempo US operations. Prevailing in this future environment requires holistic approaches using concepts of operations that integrate varied capabilities, capacities, and tactics to create a US advantage. The challenge (and the risk) lies in choosing among several available alternatives at a time when budgets are tight, the threat is still developing, and consensus is lacking on the best way to proceed.
To make these choices, senior policy makers need a framework and approach to evaluate the developing environment and assist in making investment choices. This paper's purpose is to develop such a framework through a five-part analysis. The first part provides a review of US technical challenges from potential enemy states. Future strategic, operational, and tactical challenges set the stage in this segment of the analysis. The second section examines competing air defense network models, breaking down how the United States might engage an opposing network to gain access. The next part defines a three-tiered approach (operations view, systems view, and acquisition view) to analyze alternative strategies against future adversary networks. Using this approach, the fourth section then examines three concepts of operations the United States may employ to gain access into hyper-defended enemy states. With these four steps completed, the final analysis outlines investment options and recommendations for technical opportunities to properly posture air dominance assets for 2035 decisive combat operations. The analysis begins by exploring the future strategic challenges the United States faces in 2035.
